GPWA Times Magazine - Issue 31 - February 2015

For successful sports betting, the secret’s in the statistics When did you launch your site? On Christmas Eve 2007. In 2006, I launched a private website, but it was one of those “all about everything” sites. How did you become involved in the in- dustry? During my first year at university I met a guy who bet. He used to bet a lot of money (not always successfully) and I thought that betting might be interesting. How long did it take for your site to start earning money? The reasonable profits started after six months. In your GPWA member details you list your occupation as “professional gam- bler.” Does gambling account for most of your income, or do you earn more from SureBety.pl? At the moment I earn more from running SureBety.pl as since summer of 2014 I’ve had no time for bet- ting. I try to focus on my website to make it more effective: Visitors may find more information about winning more money from bookmakers and the time I spend on work is worth more money. Which gambling activities do you pre- fer? I prefer trading while watching ten- nis matches. I think that tennis is more in- teresting than football; it’s more dynamic, and a football match can go on for 90 min- utes without any goal. Besides, when I did my research, I found out that tennis is more profitable for me than football. Are you a one-person shop or are you part of a larger organization? Definitely a one-person shop. What I do is manage the website as a betting expert and orga- nize tasks for the IT specialists who work for me. A larger organization is not one of my aims, because the legal situation of on- line betting in Poland is uncertain and I do not want to leave my country. Describe your work environment. Do you work from home or in an office? If you work from home, how often do you get to see and interact with other people in the industry? For the last five and a half years I used to have a full-time job, so I used to work in an office. Now, as SureBety.pl is my only job, I work from home. I have so much work to do that I don’t have much time to interact with other people apart from answering e-mail (which takes one to two hours a day) and writing posts on Facebook (three times a week) and on the website (latest comments and news). What traits do you look for in an affili- ate manager? How about in an affiliate program? I think that the most important traits of an affiliate manager are analytical thinking and being articulate, which are useful in finding ideal partners. In affili- ate programs I appreciate an individual approach and basic honesty. What’s your preferred method of com- munication with affiliate managers? Do you like to talk on the phone, by e-mail or via Skype? I definitely like sending e-mail, but Skype is indispensable in ur- gent cases. What prompted you to join the GPWA? How has it helped you? I heard that the GPWA is the most reputable forum for affiliates and I always do my best to co- operate with the best. I wanted to make SureBety.pl more reputable through co- operation with the GPWA. Describe the current status and condition of online gaming in Poland. Since Jan. 1, 2010, it is forbidden to bet with online book- makers who do not have a Polish gambling license. However, due to the European law, bookmakers' licenses given by countries that are members of the EU should be re- garded as valid also in Poland. Because the European law is superior to the local one, bookmakers that have a European license operate in Poland legally. In 2014, play- ers were punished for online gambling for the first time. The fines were about 2,000 to 3,000 PLN ( € 500 to € 750), which is not much. The situation will not be clear until one of the players refuses to pay the fine and is taken to court. Nonetheless, more and more Poles are betting online. In 2014, four new bookmakers decided to enter the Polish bet- ting market, which confirms that betting is an important part of the Polish lifestyle. You seem to stress a data-driven ap- proach to sports betting. What are the key elements you follow to handicap a match? Statistics are the basis. Almost every match can be described by a math- ematical model, if the match does not dif- fer too much from a normal match. This means that the model assumptions must be met. That is why any unusual infor- mation may be more important for mak- ing a bet than if the odds were based on statistics only. Recent injuries, changes in the lineup or motivation factors are very important. How large a sample do you believe you need to have in order to demonstrate that you can beat a bookmaker's odds on a long-term basis? I believe 100 bets at the decimal odds of 2.0 are enough to prove if someone is able to beat the bookmaker or not. In practice it should be around 200, but this requires twice as much time to find many valuable bets. One of the things you point out on your site is that it is difficult to find good tip- sters. Do you pay attention to anyone else's analyses? Or do you only handi- cap games yourself? Today it is harder to find analyses than it was a few years ago – especially when you’re looking for good ones. I built my knowledge by read- ing tipsters' analyses, but it required read- ing many of them before I could rely on my own research. Sometimes I ask other players – individuals who in my opinion are experts – what they think of my picks. Your site doesn't appear to sell picks. Have you ever considered doing that? No, because selling picks has never been one of my goals. I prefer to focus on build- ing the betting knowledge of my readers. Besides, there are plenty of sites that sell picks and are better at providing them than my site is. Do you make more money betting on games or through your affiliate rela- tionships with online sportsbooks? From affiliates. GPWA AFFILIATE INTERVIEW SERIES KRZYSZTOF szachinista GPWA Affiliate Interview Series